Political Implications of U.P. Assembly Election Results

Uttar Pradesh is set to become the northern Tamil Nadu of India. For second consecutive term, people of Uttar Pradesh have given decisive mandate to a single party to rule. On the other hand, lofty dreams of two national parties to stage come back in the heartland of Indian politics suffered heavy blow despite their all out efforts to woo the voters. In 2007, Bahujan Samaj Party formed the government with clear majority of 206 seats in the assembly of 404 members. This time, Samajwadi Party, minus Amar Singh, managed to secure the clearest ever mandate in Uttar Pradesh since 1985 elections. Vote swing of 4% against BSP resulted in its drubbing, while gain of 5% votes by SP increased its tally by more than the double of what it had 5 years ago. That time everyone had written off Mulayam Singh and now many may tempt to make the same mistake by writing the obituary to Mayawati’s political career. However, this could just be the beginning of cyclical process in India’s most populous state. In all likelihood, Mayawati’s BSP stands a chance to return to power in 2017 with the support of same social groups that have deserted her in this election. After all, in the southern state of Tamil Nadu, every time DMK is wiped out, it comes back with a vengeance in next elections. So is true about AIADMK. However, one of the national parties, either Congress or BJP, can break this prospective cycle in U.P. if it can win over the single largest floating group in the state, i.e. the Brahmins. In the two successive U.P. assembly elections, Brahmins have emerged as kingmaker in the state. Their substantial strength of more than 11% with considerable rural base can be termed as third largest politically influential group in the state; after the Muslims who are around 25% and Dalits who are around 22%. In last elections, Brahmins had casted their fortunes with BSP, while this time around they have made favours to SP. Addition of 11% Brahmin votes to SP’s consolidated vote bank of 25% Muslims and 7% Yadavas is unbeatable formula in the caste-ridden politics of U.P. Apart from the Brahmin’s disenchantment with Behenji, the reasons of which are unclear yet, farmers in the state have decided to oust the Mayawati regime as they discovered Mulayam Singh to be more farmer-friendly. Ignorance or negligence of farmers’ agonies apart from the chronic electricity problem in the vast rural areas created unfavourable environment for the BSP, even though Mayawati’s administration is perceived as better than what Netaji had performed during his last term.

The U.P. assembly election results are unlikely to have any impact on stability of U.P.A. government at the centre. Neither does it is a mark to predict the results of 2014 general elections. Media has been quite wrong in calling it the semi-final of the mother of all battles as assembly elections to Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Delhi are due before 2014. BJP is facing the herculean task of defending 5 out of these 7 states and snatching away the last two from the Congress in these elections. The trajectory of Indian politics since 2009 general elections indicates that Congress’ presence in the next Lok Sabha will be considerably weakened, however on the other hand, BJP will be depending on many regional satraps to prove the majority. If Left Parties could improve their performance in 2014, combination of UPA (minus Trinamool Congress), SP and Left Front can not be ruled out at the centre.

This election, supposed to be the watershed for Rahul Gandhi, has turned out to be the flop show for Congress. The results have failed to provide any inspiration for the rudderless UPA. Unless and until the Congress braces for major changes in the government and party organization, its chances of maintaining its tally in the next Lok Sabha are extremely difficult. The immediate and necessary required change is that of the Prime Minister. Replacing Manmohan Singh with Pranab Mukherjee can provide new synergy and direction to UPA, with new ministerial team devoid of providing electoral results in states like UP and Bihar. Radical changes in government and party can save the Congress from complete debacle in next elections.

The immediate beneficiary of U.P. assembly election results is the incumbent Vice-President of India, Dr. Hamid Ansari, who is now poised to emerge as unanimous choice of secular minded parties for the post of President of India. The SP and BSP, now with a huge electoral collage in UP, and the Left Parties as well as many non-NDA parties will favor Dr. Ansari than any other Congress nominee at the post of President. After the results of 5 assembly elections, it is now certain that Congress can not push for its chosen nominee for the coveted post. The race for Vice-Presidential post remains wide open.